The construction industry may see a slowdown soon

Construction firms continue to provide very favourable assessments of the market situation, but these assessments are slightly worse than six months ago. A vast majority of managers at the largest Polish construction companies positively view the present situation in the industry. However, the key barriers to doing business in Poland are invariably the same: labour shortage and high labour costs.

Optimism continues strong for the construction sector

A survey conducted by PMR, a research and consulting firm, for the purposes of the report “Construction Sector in Poland – H1 2008. Development Forecasts for 2008-2010” proves that the situation in the construction market continues to be very favourable. Over two-thirds of the largest construction firms operating in Poland take a positive view of the current situation in the sector. However, compared with a similar survey conducted by PMR in September 2007, the overall mood among construction firms is slightly less upbeat since almost 80% of the respondents described the industry situation as good or very good at the time of the September 2007 survey. Yet, forecasts for the future are still optimistic – over 40% of the surveyed companies expect improvement in the conditions prevailing in the construction market in the upcoming 12 months, while over 50% of them expect that the situation will continue at the current high level.

PMR asked respondents to formulate forecasts for 2008 for the following indicators of the conditions prevailing in the construction market:

• construction and assembly output

• cement production

• number of issued construction permits

• prices of construction materials

• employment in construction companies

• wages in construction companies.

Construction firms continue to provide very favourable assessments of the market situation, but these assessments are slightly worse than six months ago. A vast majority of managers at the largest Polish construction companies positively view the present situation in the industry. However, the key barriers to doing business in Poland are invariably the same: labour shortage and high labour costs.

Optimism continues strong for the construction sector

A survey conducted by PMR, a research and consulting firm, for the purposes of the report “Construction Sector in Poland – H1 2008. Development Forecasts for 2008-2010” proves that the situation in the construction market continues to be very favourable. Over two-thirds of the largest construction firms operating in Poland take a positive view of the current situation in the sector. However, compared with a similar survey conducted by PMR in September 2007, the overall mood among construction firms is slightly less upbeat since almost 80% of the respondents described the industry situation as good or very good at the time of the September 2007 survey. Yet, forecasts for the future are still optimistic – over 40% of the surveyed companies expect improvement in the conditions prevailing in the construction market in the upcoming 12 months, while over 50% of them expect that the situation will continue at the current high level.

PMR asked respondents to formulate forecasts for 2008 for the following indicators of the conditions prevailing in the construction market:

• construction and assembly output

• cement production

• number of issued construction permits

• prices of construction materials

• employment in construction companies

• wages in construction companies.

The respondents forecast growth in all the six indicators. A steep 95% of the companies expect continued increase in wages in the construction sector. Compared with the results of the September 2007 survey, the percentage of companies expecting growth in workforce and construction and assembly output was unchanged. Noteworthy was a substantial decline in the share of respondents expecting further increases in the prices of construction materials. However, the percentage of construction firms forecasting further growth in the number of issued construction permits decreased as well.

Improving financial standing of construction companies

The largest construction companies continue to assess their financial situation as good – a steep four-fifths of the surveyed companies believe this to be the case (only 3% of the companies express a contrary view). Almost 50% of the surveyed businesses also admitted that the present financial standing of their companies is better than a year earlier, and two-thirds of them forecast that at the end of 2008 the financial condition of their enterprises will be better than in 2007. Though these results are still very optimistic, it should be noted that the provided assessments are slightly less optimistic than six months earlier. The results concerning the general construction climate indicator follow a similar trend.

Polish construction companies continue to be very positive about their order portfolios – 70% of the respondents provided good assessments of the current number of orders. Moreover, over two-thirds of the surveyed companies expect the order portfolios to grow further in the upcoming 12 months.

“An analysis of the statistics and the results of the survey conducted by PMR among the 200 largest construction companies may lead to a conclusion that increases in the construction industry will reach their all-time highs in the nearest future, and that the coming years will see a stable but slightly lower pace of growth in construction and assembly output,” says Bartlomiej Sosna, a Construction Market Analyst at PMR and the author of the report. The increase in construction and assembly output will be fuelled mainly by large infrastructure projects which account for the largest part of the construction market. Further increases can be also expected in residential and commercial construction sectors, but they will not be as spectacular as those reported in 2007.